Comments on: The Large Market Fallacy http://colinraney.com/2009/08/the-large-market-fallacy/ Designing Business Wed, 01 Sep 2010 01:51:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Mensah http://colinraney.com/2009/08/the-large-market-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-116 Mensah Thu, 03 Dec 2009 17:02:31 +0000 http://colinraney.com/?p=218#comment-116 I whole-heartedly agree with the article and in general the comments put forth. I also think corporate culture invites this type of hype in the planning process. This is because no executive wants to be seen proposing something that has a modest potential. You have to go big and if you should fail in the end just blame it on other factors, versus the poor planning in the first place. In corporate America, we are rewarded partly for the perception we create, not actual results. Case in point, the financial melt-down. I whole-heartedly agree with the article and in general the comments put forth. I also think corporate culture invites this type of hype in the planning process. This is because no executive wants to be seen proposing something that has a modest potential. You have to go big and if you should fail in the end just blame it on other factors, versus the poor planning in the first place. In corporate America, we are rewarded partly for the perception we create, not actual results. Case in point, the financial melt-down.

]]> By: Saeed Khan http://colinraney.com/2009/08/the-large-market-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-98 Saeed Khan Sun, 08 Nov 2009 13:19:41 +0000 http://colinraney.com/?p=218#comment-98 There's nothing inherently wrong with viewing a large market and attempting to get a "piece of the action". But as you point out, the top down approach (strategy/objective) must be paired with a bottom up analysis (tactics/execution). Questions like the following must be answered: How many units must be sold to achieve the target at what price? What does that mean in terms of leads or web traffic etc? What is needed to generate those leads/traffic? How much will that cost? What common characteristics define those leads? i.e. who is the initial target audience? What barriers are there to buying (or selling) our product to the target audience? Etc. Answering bottom up questions like these put a dose of reality into those large market assumption. The bottom up thinking will quickly support or collapse the top down assumptions. There’s nothing inherently wrong with viewing a large market and attempting to get a “piece of the action”.

But as you point out, the top down approach (strategy/objective) must be paired with a bottom up analysis (tactics/execution).

Questions like the following must be answered:

How many units must be sold to achieve the target at what price?

What does that mean in terms of leads or web traffic etc?

What is needed to generate those leads/traffic?

How much will that cost?

What common characteristics define those leads? i.e. who is the initial target audience?

What barriers are there to buying (or selling) our product to the target audience?

Etc. Answering bottom up questions like these put a dose of reality into those large market assumption.

The bottom up thinking will quickly support or collapse the top down assumptions.

]]> By: Phil http://colinraney.com/2009/08/the-large-market-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-97 Phil Sat, 07 Nov 2009 12:49:53 +0000 http://colinraney.com/?p=218#comment-97 I completely agree. Having worked in corporate strategy at a respected F200 company and now teaching, it's amazing to me the extent to which people fall into the LMF. I'm also an advocate of DDP and have helped several large organizations try to use it's principles. Here's my observation about why people do this. I think there are 2-3 big reasons (that have some overlap). 1) Not as many peopla as we want to have actual curiosity and drive to solve problems. Intellectual lazinesss/lack of time is a huge factor. 2) Many people in positions to be doing the plan either lack skin in the game (as you point out), or more commonly (in my experience) they lack actual experience to even understand the depth of their ignorance. It's a "they don't know what they don't know" issue. 3) Corporate culture sets this up as well. Many execs WANT the exiting plan to look good and figure that they'll "figure out the details later" Good post and thanks for the knowing smile :-) I completely agree. Having worked in corporate strategy at a respected F200 company and now teaching, it’s amazing to me the extent to which people fall into the LMF. I’m also an advocate of DDP and have helped several large organizations try to use it’s principles.

Here’s my observation about why people do this. I think there are 2-3 big reasons (that have some overlap). 1) Not as many peopla as we want to have actual curiosity and drive to solve problems. Intellectual lazinesss/lack of time is a huge factor. 2) Many people in positions to be doing the plan either lack skin in the game (as you point out), or more commonly (in my experience) they lack actual experience to even understand the depth of their ignorance. It’s a “they don’t know what they don’t know” issue. 3) Corporate culture sets this up as well. Many execs WANT the exiting plan to look good and figure that they’ll “figure out the details later”

Good post and thanks for the knowing smile :-)

]]> By: colin http://colinraney.com/2009/08/the-large-market-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-63 colin Wed, 12 Aug 2009 00:46:48 +0000 http://colinraney.com/?p=218#comment-63 A Concise Introduction to Logic by Hurley. (I'm shocked it's still in print.) The website I posted in the article pretty much pointed to all the fallacies I remember, but here's a ink to the book if you're still interested. I don't guarantee greatness, I was 19 at the time and very impressionable :) http://www.amazon.com/Concise-Introduction-Logic-Patrick-Hurley/dp/0534520065 A Concise Introduction to Logic by Hurley. (I’m shocked it’s still in print.) The website I posted in the article pretty much pointed to all the fallacies I remember, but here’s a ink to the book if you’re still interested. I don’t guarantee greatness, I was 19 at the time and very impressionable :)
http://www.amazon.com/Concise-Introduction-Logic-Patrick-Hurley/dp/0534520065

]]> By: Dave B. http://colinraney.com/2009/08/the-large-market-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-61 Dave B. Tue, 11 Aug 2009 18:58:26 +0000 http://colinraney.com/?p=218#comment-61 Logic book title, please? Logic book title, please?

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