game theory + predictions

Man, I loves me some game theory. I was lucky enough to take several classes on the subject in school and I learned from some brilliant minds. I had tried to study it before through books, but it’s all very theoretical and gets very tangled very fast. The only way I ever managed to grasp the concept was to see things run in simulations. There was a dreadful phenomenal class I had where my entire class ran competing companies in a massive simulation that lasted like 8 weeks. Possibly the hardest thing I’ve ever done (since then, Tepper has made the course non-manditory, so I’m pretty sure it’s reputation will force it’s own extinction, which really depresses me).

ANYWAY…to the point.

I caught a wonderful Ted Talk last night, wherein Bruce Bueno de Mesquita does fabulous talk on game theory and prediction methods, (he didn’t even say prisoners dilemma once!) He ended with a fantastic visual that (for me) did a great job of starting to explain how predications play out over time.

TED Blog_ 3 predictions on the future of Iran, and the math to back it up_ Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on TED.com.jpg

Not exactly a beautiful visual in an of itself, it it helps tell a really complicated story very well. You have to watch the talk.

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